Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD upside eyes $1,745 amid bullish RSI divergence, softer USD

  • Gold price picks up bids to reverse the previous day’s pullback from weekly high.
  • 100-SMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and one-week-old resistance line stand tall to test XAU/USD buyers.
  • US-China news, hopes from global central bankers trigger corrective moves and sluggish yields.

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains on the front foot around $1,720 amid early Friday morning in Europe. In doing so, the yellow metal cheers broad US dollar weakness amid cautious optimism in the market. Also favoring the bullion buyers are the technical signals.

US Dollar Index (DXY) pares the biggest daily loss in a month around 108.90, staying around the one-week bottom by the press time. In doing so, the greenback gauge fails to justify the hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, published the previous day, while highlighting the market’s firmer sentiment.

Market sentiment takes clues from firmer comments made late Thursday by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, signaling a likely positive change in the US-China trade ties. Recently firmer US data and hopes that the global central bankers will be able to overcome inflation-led blow with a holistic approach and higher rates also seemed to have favored the market’s mood. It should be noted that talks over likely hardships for China’s technology company and downbeat China inflation numbers seemed to have probed the XAU/USD bulls of late.

While portraying the mood, the US 10-year Treasury yields remain sidelined near 3.32%, after a positive day, whereas the S&P 500 Futures traces Wall Street’s gains around 4,020. It should be noted that the stocks in the Asia-Pacific region also remain firmer as cautious optimism spreads amid a sluggish session.

Given the risk-on mood and downbeat US dollar, the XAU/USD prices are likely to end the week on a positive note. However, the last round of Fedspeak ahead of the blackout period, starting from this weekend, should be given attention for fresh impulse. Also important will be chatters surrounding the US inflation ahead of the next week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Technical analysis

Gold price justifies the bullish RSI divergence as the bulls approach a convergence of the 100-SMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of July-August upside and a one-week-old rising trend line.

Given the bullish MACD signals, as well as the firmer RSI backing the higher low on prices, the XAU/USD is likely to overcome the $1,730 hurdle, which in turn could propel the commodity towards the August 25 swing high near $1,765.

However, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near $1,745 may offer an intermediate halt during the run-up.

Alternatively, pullback moves may re-test the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement support, around $1,707, before directing gold bears towards the $1,700 threshold.

Even so, the sellers remain cautious as an upward sloping trend line from late July and the yearly low, respectively near $1,690 and $1,680, could test the metal’s further downside.

Gold: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further upside expected


Today last price1721.51
Today Daily Change13.06
Today Daily Change %0.76%
Today daily open1708.45
Daily SMA201739.05
Daily SMA501745.74
Daily SMA1001797.82
Daily SMA2001833.8
Previous Daily High1728.27
Previous Daily Low1704.01
Previous Weekly High1745.58
Previous Weekly Low1688.92
Previous Monthly High1807.93
Previous Monthly Low1709.68
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1713.28
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1719
Daily Pivot Point S11698.88
Daily Pivot Point S21689.32
Daily Pivot Point S31674.62
Daily Pivot Point R11723.14
Daily Pivot Point R21737.84
Daily Pivot Point R31747.4